Conversion rates vary by firm, office, year and business conditions, so there is no universal percentage you should rely on.

The internship is both a real job experience and an evaluation period. Firms look at the quality of your work, problem solving, communication, teamwork, professionalism and how quickly you respond to feedback.

Most interns should focus less on estimating the historical conversion rate and more on understanding what strong performance looks like in that office. Ask for feedback early enough to act on it.

External factors can matter, but the safest assumption is that the return offer must be earned. Treat every project as a chance to demonstrate that the team would want to work with you again.

My office had a strong return rate, but nobody treated the offer as automatic.

The people who did best asked for feedback early instead of waiting until the end of the summer.

The MBA process moves fast, so I would rather get one direct answer from recruiting than build a plan around assumptions. In my case, the exact timing around what are my odds of converting a consulting internship into a full-time offer mattered most.