If you would clearly prefer one office and have a credible reason for it, that should carry substantial weight. You are choosing where you may actually live and build relationships for years.

Perceived recruiting odds are noisy. A smaller office may hire fewer people, while a larger office may have more applicants but also more seats.

Do not optimize yourself into an office you would regret joining. If multiple locations are genuinely attractive, then hiring dynamics can be one factor, but not the only one.

I picked the office I wanted and stopped trying to reverse-engineer acceptance rates.

You have to live there after the interview lol.